Will the United States and Iran announce an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before November 30, 2026?
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since the US-Iran war began in late February 2026. An interim ceasefire collapsed, and in September Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade and oil sanctions, which President Trump rejected. On October 18, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the offer remains on the table and Tehran is reviewing US comments, while Washington maintains the strait is open to all ships except Iranian ones. This market assesses whether both sides announce an agreement on Hormuz before the deadline.
Conditions
Resolves YES if, between the market's publication and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, both the US government and the government of Iran officially announce or confirm an agreement (interim or final, including a memorandum of understanding) that provides for reopening or restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Each side's confirmation must come from an official government source (such as the White House, the US State Department, or Iran's Foreign Ministry or Presidency) and be reported by at least one of Reuters, AP or Bloomberg. Resolves NO otherwise. Not considered: proposals, offers or drafts not confirmed as agreed by both sides; statements by only one side; agreements between Iran and third countries without the United States as a party; ceasefire announcements that do not cover the Strait of Hormuz; and agreements reached before the market's publication.
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